LAIV (live intranasal influenza vaccine) causes side effects that are identical to influenza symptoms. It is also known to cause contagious disease in at least 2% of recipients. Two percent may not sound like much, but when it is 2% of tens of thousands, this amounts to a lot of people being able to communicate influenza acquired via LAIV. Keep in mind that influenza accounts for only about 15% of seasonal 'influenza-like illness' (ILI). CDC estimates that 5-20% of the population gets influenza every year. If you vaccinate 50% of the population with LAIV and 2% become infectious, this is means you have created 1/5 to 1/20 of the infectious flu cases that a normal seasonal flu would create, just by vaccination alone. With a highly contagious disease like H1N1, it does not seem such a stretch to consider that this could, in itself, launch a pandemic. CDC figures on flu infection percentage by population, refered to by FDA www.docstoc.com/docs/8720444/FDA-Approves-Vaccine-for-2009-2010-Seasonal-Influenza More on LAIV : cdc.gov/FLU/protect/keyfacts.htm Increase in cases and deaths since the introduction of the LAIV: www.cdc.gov/H1n1flu/update.htm cbs5.com/national/h1n1.kids.death.2.1254588.html WHO states it wants to 'spin' the influenza pandemic to maintain political interest so that governments will want to invest in vaccine production and stockpile vaccines.: 19 October 2007 WHO HQ, Geneva, Switzerland A major risk factor is the underlying assumption that there will in fact be a pandemic. If there is not a pandemic within the next five years, there may be loss of interest and political awareness, and other public health needs may shift investment away from pandemic influenza. Therefore, it is critical to identify the best possible strategy to maintain political commitment From a marketing and financial perspective, the right engine to achieve this plan has to be selected based on a financial perspective. It will be critical to choose the right channel, which may include hosting the GAP under the umbrella of the implementation of international health regulations, as a global health security issue, or under health system strengthening. The business plan should work towards alignment with other organizations, harmonization of strategies with donors and maintenance of commitment of stakeholders/donors to avoid donor fatigue The Advisory Group suggested focusing on the following priorities over the coming months: 1) The main priorities for WHO for the year 2008 should be to choose the appropriate spin to be placed on the business plan in association with the right marketing strategy. WHO also needs to establish a detailed operational plan and to define financial resources i.e. donors, countries, and other stakeholders. Leveraging the GAP with twin programmes from sister agencies or other stakeholders, as well as making sure that the need for increasing influenza vaccine production capacity is addressed in the political arena are key priorities 74.125.93.132/search?q=cache:xVM3Gv8pn98J:whqlibdoc.who.int/HQ/2008/WHO_IVB_08.10_eng.pdf+WHO+HQ,+Geneva,+Switzerland+A+major+risk+factor+is+the+underlying+assumption+that+there+will+in+fact+be&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ca